Corn prices initially tried to head back lower on Wednesday, though the midday prints are mixed. March futures are ¾ of a cent off the day’s high and 1 ½ cents in the black at midday. New crop futures are fractionally lower so far for Wednesday though Dec is 3 ½ cents off the session low.
CONAB updated their estimate for Brazil’s corn production 925k MT lower, via a reduced area for 1st crop. CONAB had 1st crop output at 24.4 MMT, with 91.2 MMT expected for 2nd crop and a 23/24 total output of 117.6 MMT. That is down from 132 MMT last year and is 11.4 MMT below the standing USDA figure.
Analysts expect USDA will reduce the Brazilian corn crop by 2.5 MMT on average to 126.5 MMT. With delayed and replanted soybeans, the Brazilian 2nd crop is expected to get a late start as well. Pre-report estimates for Argentina range from a 1.5 MMT cut to a 1 MMT boost with 54.8 (-200k) MMT representing the average trade guess.
AgRural had summer corn planting at 3.3% finished for the Center-South region. That compares to 2.3% for the same region of Brazil last year. Mosaic expects Brazil’s 2024 fertilizer demand will be 46 MMT, up from their prior estimate of 45 MMT and 45.8 MMT last year.
Traders are looking for NASS to report 12.013 bbu on Dec 1. That would be 11% looser than last year on a 10% larger supply – barring adjustments to production / imports.
The monthly Census data had a 3.57 MMT shipped for November. That has the official Q1 export at 375.9 mbu, compared to 281.9 mbu last year.
South Korea’s NOFI booked 135k MT of corn via international tender. South Korea’s KFA reportedly booked 65k MT of corn without issuing a tender. Algeria is on the market for 120k MT of corn.
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.61, up 1 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $4.35 5/8, up 1 7/8 cents,
May 24 Corn closed at $4.72 1/4, up 3/4 cent,
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.82 1/4, up 1/4 cent,
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