Beans are off their lows at midday but still trading 2 to 7 cents in the red so far. That has the March contract at more than a 50 cent loss since gapping lower to start the year – during which, OI across all contracts has increased by 50k contracts (6.2%). Soymeal futures are $1.60 to $3/ton lower so far for Wednesday. Midday Soy oil futures remain in the black with gains of as much as 68 points.
CONAB lowered their soybean production figure by 4.9 MMT to 155.3 MMT in their Jan report. That came via area shifts (Parana +50k HA, Mato Grasso -85k HA) and via lower yields. National yield was trimmed the equivalent of 1.6 bpa to 51 bpa, compared to 52.2 LY. Mato Grasso and Minas Gerais were trimmed the most relative to Dec the Dec figure.
Pre-report estimates show analysts expect the WAOB to cut Brazil’s soybean forecast by at least 1 MMT to as much as 8.2 MMT, with 156.7 MMT representing the average trade guess. Argentina’s output is expected to increase by 700k MT on average, though estimates ranged from UNCH to +2 MMT.
AgRural reported soybean harvest at 6% finished for the Center-South Region of Brazil. That compares to 0.4% at the same time last year. Overall Brazilian harvest is less than 1% completed. Safras y Mercado estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 151.4 MMT, down from their 158.2 MMT forecast in December and now 4.1% lower yr/yr.
Analysts are looking for NASS to report 2.976 bbu for Dec 1 bean stocks. That would be 1.5% tighter than last year with a 3% lighter supply total – barring adjustments to crop size or imports.
Census data showed 7.464 MMT of soybeans were officially exported during November. That was down 24% from Nov 2022 and was a 4-yr low for the month. The official Q1 soybean export was 713.3 mbu, compared to 801.8 mbu last year.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.41 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $11.86 5/8, down 6 3/4 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.52 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.59 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,
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