History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes

Tune in daily to catch Bill Baruch dissecting the day’s market happenings after the bell rings. Gain insightful analysis and stay ahead in the financial game with Bill as your guide!

Bill Baruch does a quick daily video after the market closes each day and posts it to his Twitter and Instagram: @bill_baruch.

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5328.00, down 17.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,786.75, down 12.50

All eyes were on NVDA’s earnings report yesterday, but the E-mini NQ was already up more than 7% on the month. Despite that strength and a new record high, price action became stagnant in the week leading into this report. So much so that momentum and breadth began showing signs of exhaustion. A beat and raise from the market’s most powerful engine has revved indices, slinging the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ further into fresh record territory and confirming what began a week ago: a breakout above the March high.

If the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ were about to embark on a new bull leg, it is imperative for our first major three-star support levels, aligning with yesterday’s settlement, to hold. Furthermore, the E-mini S&P tested what we have had as rare major four-star support through the FOMC Minutes and again upon NVDA’s release. This level was also tested and held last Friday and brings a line in the sand defining the next bull leg at 5303.25-5308.50.

So, where to next? Two weeks ago, we wrote here that we believed the market began to confirm a bottom was created in April and through the first couple of days of May. We also expressed our upside target for this wave aligns multiple technical indicators with a Fibonacci retracement and a 10% run to 5459.75-5474.25. Today, we will use this moment to reiterate this target.

• Bias: Bullish
• Resistance: 5365.50-5370.50, 5391.75*, 5400-5420.25, 5459.75-5474.25
• Pivot: 5349
• Support: 5343.25-5345.25, 5334-5336.75, 5328, 5319.50*, 5303.25-5308.50

NQ (June)

• Resistance: 18,977**, 19,085, 19,319
• Pivot: 18,891
• Support: 18,786-18,825, 18,715-18,732, 18,678-18,691, 18,620-18,635*

Crude Oil (July)

Yesterday’s close: Settled 77.57, down 1.09

WTI Crude Oil futures are showing renewed life this morning, trading nearly 2% from the low through Asia’s open. In fact, commodities broadly were hit sharply during that timeframe. Soft economic data and hawkish Fed speak have been a headwind this week, but less of a draw than expected on yesterday’s weekly EIA inventory report and news that Russia overproduced in April brought additional market pressures.

Have we hit peak pessimism? WTI Crude Oil futures tested and responded to a significant area of support overnight, potentially building out the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders going back to May 8th. As today’s session unfolds into the final day of the week, we believe continued price action above our Pivot and point of balance at 78.08, the .382 retracement back to the 80.11 high, will help invite fresh buying.

• Bias: Neutral/Bullish
• Resistance: 78.33-78.47, 78.86-79.04, 79.34**, 80.09-80.11, 81.28
• Pivot: 78.08
• Support: 77.35-77.60, 76.63-76.82, 75.70-76.46*, 74.66-74.70

Gold (June) / Silver (July)

• Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2392.9, down 33.0
• Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 31.496, down 0.582

The metals complex was bludgeoned yesterday and given the late session selling, settlement prices do not do it justice. While risk management becomes more important than ever during times of uncertainty, pullbacks or corrections can last longer than one is comfortable, it is also equally as crucial to back out of the forest to see the trees. It is a time like this that I am reminded that during Silver’s path to $50 in 2011, there were multiple corrections of $3 or more. In February 2011, Silver broke out above its December high of 31.27 and on the third session, stretched to a high of 34.33 before consolidating a day and plunging to a low of 31.69. There were four instances like this before Silver peaked at 49.82 on April 25, 2011.

Yes, our Bias remains more Bullish, and it becomes imperative for Silver to have a constructive path and hold out above our two waves of rare major four-star support. The first aligns the April high with the .382 retracement back to the May low at 30.19-30.27. Last night’s low was 30.36. In the case of additional pressures, we will look to a critical area at 29.50-29.72. If that is surrendered, the bigger broader narrative is bending.

• Bias: Bullish/Neutral
• Resistance: 2375.2-2377.8, 2385.3, 2389.6-2392.9, 2398.9-2400, 2408, 2416.2-2417.4*
• Pivot: 2369.7-2370.6
• Support: 2356.8-2360.2, 2349.8, 2340.3-2343, 2322.5-2325.1

Silver (July)

• Resistance: 31.18, 31.28-31.32**, 31.50-31.61
• Pivot: 30.91-30.96
• Support: 30.63-30.73, 30.36-30.43, 30.19-30.27, 29.50-29.72

Micro Bitcoin (May)

• Yesterday’s close: Settled at 69,815, up 315
• Bias: Neutral/Bullish
• Resistance: 70,435-70,690, 71,000-71,250, 71,905-71,935, 74,100**, 75,795-76,200
• Pivot: 69,920
• Support: 69,000-69,405, 68,400, 67,365-68,035, 66,280-66,535**, 65,445

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