The entirety of March’s overnight range was to the upside, though by at most a nickel. The AM quotes have the board 2 to 5 cents in the black heading into the day session. The front month soybean market fell by 6 ¼ to 10 ¾ cents across the front months. The new crop contracts reduced the spread to a Mar-Nov inverse of 37 ½ cents. Soymeal futures ended the session $0.50 to $1.60 weaker. Soy oil futures ended the session in the black with 13 to 27 point gains.
There were again zero delivery notices against January meal futures, with 9 put out against January bean oil. Marex customers put out 93 contracts against January soybeans, with Bunga again stopping 39 deliveries for the house account. A commercial client for JPM stopped the rest.
Pre-report estimates for the Jan WASDE report show analysts are looking for between a 30 mbu cut and a 69 mbu increase for soybean carryout, with 242.3 mbu expected on average. The ‘final’ production figure is expected to be 4.122 bbu on average, down 7 million bushels from 4.129 bbu in the Dec report and estimates ranging from 4.074 bbu to 4.173. On average soybean yield is expected to be 0.1 bpa lower in the report on Friday.
The weekly Export Inspections data had 674,749 MT of soybean shipments for the week that ended 1/4. That was down from 969k MT the week prior, and was less than half of the same volume during the same week last year. The season’s total reached 23.95 MMT compared to 30.2 MMT for last year’s pace.
Safras an Mercado estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 151.4 MMT, down from their 158.2 MMT forecast in December and is now 4.1% lower yr/yr. Brazil’s government estimates December soybean exports were 3.8 MMT, up from only 1.9 MMT in December 2022.
Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $12.39 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents, currently down 1 cent
Nearby Cash was $11.89 3/8, down 10 5/8 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.45 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents, currently up 2 3/4 cents
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.54 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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