The wheat complex is posting sharp gains so far on Monday. Chicago contracts are up 30 to 33 cents at midday. Kansas City futures are rallying 32 to 34 cents across the front months. MPLS spring wheat futures are up 22 to 24 cents at midday. Weather is likely playing a factor, as the next 7 days remain dry for the Southern Plains. Russian and EU FOB prices have also recently climbed to a more competitive price with the US on the Russian crop concerns.
The weekly Export Inspections report from the FGIS showed just 205,612 MT of wheat exported in the week that ended on May 16. That was down 46.37% from last week and is less than half of what was reported in the same week last year. The Philippines was the top destination of 64,099 MT, with 58,349 MT headed to Thailand, and 44,207 MT to Mexico. The cumulative export total this marketing year is at 17.87 MMT, down 6.8% from last year.
The large managed money spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options cut another 14,109 contracts from their net short position as of May 14 to 28,251 contracts. That was the smallest net short they have held since October 2022. In KC wheat, they cut 6,746 contracts from their net short to 17,267 contracts as of Tuesday.
Russia’s Grain Union is anticipating Russian wheat exports will slow to 48 MMT in 2024/25 vs. 53.5 MMT in 2023/24. This would be driven by frost related production losses.
Jul 24 CBOT Wheat is at $6.81 1/2, up 30 1/4 cents,
Sep 24 CBOT Wheat is at $7.02, up 30 cents,
Jul 24 KCBT Wheat is at $6.94 1/4, up 32 1/2 cents,
Sep 24 KCBT Wheat is at $7.08, up 32 1/2 cents,
Jul 24 MGEX Wheat is at $7.34 3/4, up 23 1/4 cents,
Sep 24 MGEX Wheat is at $7.45, up 23 1/2 cents,
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