Sugar Surplus to Swell in 2023/24 Season as India and Thailand Recover

The global sugar market is poised for a larger surplus than previously expected in the 2023/24 season, according to a recent analysis by StoneX, as first reported by Reuters.

This upward revision comes on the heels of production recoveries in India and Thailand during the later stages of their sugar crops. StoneX now projects a global sugar surplus of 3.9 million tonnes, exceeding total demand. This is an increase from their February estimate of a 3.4 million tonne surplus.

The upward revision is primarily driven by India and Thailand exceeding earlier production forecasts. StoneX increased its projection for India's sugar production by 1.7 million tonnes to a total of 32.8 million tonnes. Similarly, Thailand's estimated output was raised by 500,000 tonnes to 9.1 million tonnes. Both countries benefited from a stronger crop finish with higher yields in the final stages.

While Asian production is on the rise, Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, is expected to see lower output. StoneX forecasts Brazil's CS sugar output to reach 42.3 million tonnes, down from their January projection of 43.1 million tonnes. Notably, other analysts predict even lower Brazilian production, hovering around 40 million tonnes, as reported by Reuters.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted global sugar production to grow to 198 Mt by 2032, 23% of which will be sourced in Brazil, who is expected to meet the growing needs of the international market, especially in the second half of the decade.

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