Front month soybean futures fell with 19 ½ to 26 ¼ cent losses. The March contract was a nickel off the low for the close. Soymeal futures ended near the low with $6.20 to $7.10 in the red at the close. Soy oil futures finished off their lows and mostly in the black on 8 to 11 point gains past Jan’s 5 point loss.
The monthly NASS report had the November soy crush listed as 200.07 mbu. That was slightly below the all time high in October, but was just the 2nd month ever above 200 mbu. NOPA members had already reported 189.04 mbu, leading analysts to expect 200. Soybean oil stocks as of Nov 30 were 1.162 billion lbs, compared 1.062 billion in October and 1.214b from NOPA members
Estimates ahead of the monthly Fats and Oils report show traders are looking for a 200 mbu official crush for November. NOPA members confirmed 189 mbu for Nov ’23, which was a record for the month and was just 740k bu shy of the ATH from Oct ’23. BO stocks are estimated at 1.657 billion lbs ahead of the report.
Weekly Inspections data showed 961,694 MT (35.336 mbu) of soybeans was exported during the week that ended 12/28. That was a 156k MT drop for the week and was down 38% from the same week last year.
Private analysts at StoneX lowered their production forecast for Brazilian soybeans by 9.1 MMT to 152.8 MMT. Which is now below the official 22/23 crop. South America received a lot of rain over the weekend, with totals for the both the Amazon and the border of Peru/Bolivia maxed out on chart’s color scale +135mm (5.3”). NOAA reported 50-115mm for the major growing areas in Brazil, specifically Mato Grosso. The forecast for the upcoming week has +90mm (3 ½”) for the entire Central-Northeast of Brazil, with some 130mm spots in Goias and Minas Gerais. Southern Brazil is expected to miss out.
Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $12.74, down 19 1/2 cents,
Nearby Cash was $12.18 3/8, down 25 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.73 1/2, down 24 1/2 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.81, down 26 1/4 cents,
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