New Year for Wheat Market Begins with ‘Hard Open’

Wheat futures trading will resume at 8:30 AM CST. The last trade day of ’23 finished with wheat futures fractionally to 3 cents in the red. Chicago prices were a net 11 ¾ cents higher for the week and a net 30 cents higher for December. KC futures finished out Friday with ¼ to 1 ¾ cent losses, leaving the March contract at a net penny loss for the month’s move. 

Weekly CFTC data had CBoT wheat specs closing shorts during the week that ended 12/26. That left the group 59,559 contracts net short for the settle. In KC, managed money funds were 1.8k contracts more net long as the new spec sellers offset the new spec buyers. The group was shown 31k contracts net short for the settle. Minneapolis wheat specs were just 42 contracts less net short, at 27,257 contracts, as spec short covering slightly offset the long liquidation. 

The week’s Export Sales report showed 276,406 MT of wheat was booked during the week that ended 12/21. That was 15% lower for the week and was at the low end of expectations. USDA listed Mexico as the top buyer for the week. 

Russia’s SovEcon lowered their forecast for old crop wheat exports by 200,000 MT, to 48.6 MMT. Russia’s Ag Ministry reported the 2024 grain crop was 142.6 MMT, a 9.5% decrease from last season’s all-time record. Of that, Russia’s wheat crop totaled 92.77 MMT according to the Ministry. 

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.28, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.39 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.42, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.23 1/2, down 2 cents,

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