The May contract bumped the $12 mark again at the overnight high, though prices have since backed off into 7 to 8 ¾ cent losses this morning. Front month soybean futures were mixed within 1 ½ cents at the close. The old crop contracts went home red with new crop in the black. CME Open Interest data had 7,143 new bean contracts added on Thursday and 31k new options (+12k c, an +19k p). Nearby Soymeal futures closed with $1 to $1.20/ton gains. Soy Oil futures were down by less than 20 points on Thursday. May BO remains at a 222 point gain for the weekly move.
The weekly Export Sales report showed 375,980 MT of soybeans were booked during the week that ended 3/7. That was down from 613k MT sold the week prior and the 655k MT sold during the same week last year. Traders were looking for between 250k MT and 800k MT going into the report. USDA marked the season’s commitments at 1.457 bbu, which is 20% behind last year’s pace - the WASDE balance sheet has full year exports forecasted 13.7% below last year’s total. There were also 94.3k MT of new crop beans booked for export during the week ending 3/7. That took total forward sales to 350k MT vs 1.55 MMT at the same time last year.
Weekly soymeal export business came in at 209,472 MT for 23/24 and at 96,260 MT for 24/25 delivery. Meal commitments were at 9.826 MMT as of 3/7, which is 68.6% of the WASDE forecasted total. Soy oil bookings were at the top end of estimates with 11.2k MT sold. That is down from the 29.2k MT MY high last week, but is the 2nd largest weekly sale of the MY.
Traders are looking for NOPA members to report Feb’s crush at 178.1 mbu on average. The report is due later today.
Private analyst firm Agroconsult lowered their forecast for Brazilian soy production to 152.2 MMT. The firm referenced a record replant of 2.9m HA or 6.4% of the total area last fall. The firm also projects Mato Grosso to lose 18% off yield vs last year, but see a 44% yield boost for RGDS.
May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.95 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents, currently down 7 cents
Nearby Cash was $11.38 3/8, down 1 5/8 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.09 3/4, down 1/2 cent, currently down 8 cents
Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.87, up 1 cent, currently down 8 1/4 cents
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