Wheat prices are back nearer to UNCH with 1 to 6 cent losses across the complex in early Wednesday market action. May SRW had traded overnight from -3 ¾ to +6 ½ cents. Front month wheat futures were mixed at the Tuesday close. Chicago futures ended the day within a penny of UNCH after May traded a 15c range on the day. KC HRW futures were 1 ½ cents weaker in the May contracts but fractionally mixed in the other nearbys. May HRW printed a 15 cent range as well on the day. Minneapolis spring wheat futures were 2c higher, as May printed a 16 ½ cent range.
Wheat FOB prices were recently showing French and German wheat to be the most competitive, from ~$5.60/bu. Russian offers were ~11c over that and U.S. FOB prices were 66c more for SRW and $7.41 for HRW.
NASA’s GRACE root zone soil moisture shows Northern Texas and SW Kansas are significantly better than this time last year, and that Central Texas / Eastern OK have moved to historically normal ranges. The PNW still has some scattered areas of concern, but is overall significantly better than last year. Last year at this time the ECB was sufficient to surplus in soil moisture, but this year most of the ECB is below normal with notable concerns for W. IL and MO.
CONAB lowered their Brazilian wheat production forecast by 0.6 MMT to 9.6 MMT, which, unlike corn and soybeans, is above the USDA WASDE figure (8.1 MMT). Ukraine’s grain union projects their 2024 wheat crop will be the smallest in 12 years at 20 MMT. That’s down about 14.5% from last year, with constraints on land area and labor.
India’s Food Corporation estimates March wheat stocks have dropped to the lowest level in 7 years at about 9.7 MMT. They were 11.7 MMT a year ago.
May 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/2, up 1/4 cent, currently down 1 3/4 cents
Jul 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.60 3/4, down 1/4 cent, currently down 2 cents
May 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.97 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents, currently down 6 cents
Jul 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.87 1/2, down 1/4 cent, currently down 5 1/4 cents
May 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.72, up 2 cents, currently down 5 cents
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