Despite slightly worse conditions in the weekly state issued NASS data, wheat futures faded through Tuesday. The Chicago market ended the day 4-6 cents off the session lows with 10 ¾ to 17 ¾ cent losses. KC futures ended down by 9 ¼ to 11 cents. The July HRW/SRW spread now favors KC wheat by 2 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat futures ended the session 4 to 5 ¼ cents lower.
Individual state reports saw crop conditions get a little worse over the last week, as gd/ex ratings in TX were down 3% to 43%, with OK down 5% to 65%, and KS 4% lower to 53%. That dropped their respective crop ratings on the Brugler500 scale by 7 for TX and OK to 312 and 364, with KS down 3 to 338.
Ahead of the WASDE report, trader expectations average to see USDA to tighten wheat stocks by 200k bushels to 657.8 million. That comes as some responses were for a cut of as much as 18 mbu and some were to see an increase of as much as 24 mbu. Global wheat carryout is expected to tighten by 1.3 MMT.
Weekly wheat exports were 353,137 MT via the export inspections report. That was down from 482k MT last week and was similar to the volume during the same week last year. SRW was the bulk of the week’s export with over 115k MT of the total. Mexico was the top destination, though China was #2 with 59k MT shipped there during the week. The accumulated wheat exports reached 12.97 MMT vs 15.65 MMT at this point last year.
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.45 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents,
May 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.51, down 13 cents,
May 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.69 1/4, down 11 cents,
May 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.55 1/2, down 4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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