Double Digit Drop for Soybean Futures

Front month soybean prices are wobbling back by double digits on the second trade day of the week. New crop is down by 10 ½ to 12 cents while the old crop futures are down by as much as 15 ¼ cents. March is still an 18 ½ cent premium to the Nov. Soymeal prices are $5 in the red at midday, with  Soy oil futures dropping by another 35 to 43 points so far.  

The weekly Export Inspections data from USDA showed 1.185 MMT of soybeans were exported during the week that ended 2/15. That was nearly 400k MT below the same week last year. USDA has the YTD total at 31.969 MMT as of 2/15, compared to 41.4 MMT of beans shipped during the same point last season. 

Brazil’s Anec reported 7.3 MMT of soybean exports for February. That was 250k MT under Feb ’23. Meal shipments are expected to round out the month with 1.86 MMT compared to 1.28 MMT last year. 

Soybean harvest in Brazil remains ahead of last year with 31.1% of the crop out vs 25% at the same time last year – via Patria Agronegocios. AgRural reported harvest at 32% finished for 2/15. According to commercial sources, Dr. Michael Cordonnier has lowered his Brazilian production forecast another 2 MMT to 145 MMT, below the Conab est. of 149.2 MMT and the current USDA est. of 156 MMT. 

Mar 24 Soybeans  are at $11.65 1/4, down 13 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $11.13 3/8, down 14 7/8 cents,

May 24 Soybeans  are at $11.68 1/2, down 15 cents,

Jul 24 Soybeans  are at $11.77 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents,

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